"I’m asking both parties to give me trade promotion authority to protect American workers with strong new trade deals from Asia to Europe." -- President Barack Obama, January 20, 2015, State of the Union Address.
I copied Mr. Obama's remarks above from an online source (in
this case the Washington Post) for accuracy, but watched the speech on
television for nuance and congressional response. Throughout the 70-or-so
minutes of the address, as the President touted the advances in the economy,
education, and healthcare under his administration, and proposed new programs
to further his agenda, the Democrats gathered in the House of Representatives,
rose and applauded, while the Republicans remained seated. That is until the
President spoke about international trade. Democrats were decidedly cool,
prompting the President to add:
"I’m the first one to admit that past trade deals
haven’t always lived up to the hype... But 95 percent of the world’s customers
live outside our borders. We can’t close ourselves off from those
opportunities."
Republicans, for the most part, greeted with applause the
President's call for free trade agreements ("FTAs") with nations in
Asia and Western Europe. The attitude of many Republicans can be summed up in
the admission, by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, that
he "wrote a column supporting the
CAFTA, the Caribbean Free Trade initiative. I didn’t even know what was in it.
I just knew two words: free trade." (Meet the Press, July 23,
2006). Now, I'm for free trade. By free trade I mean that if it is legal to buy
a product made in the U.S. it should be equally legal to buy the same product
when imported from another country. That, however is not what our free trade
agreements are about. "Free trade," as I define it already exists.
What Mr. Obama's FTAs will do is give foreign producers an advantage over
domestic producers and maximize imports.
Take the proposed FTA with
the European Union. Currently if you produce in the US you pay taxes in the US
and then if you export to the EU you pay a very small import duty and a
value-added tax ("VAT"), which varies from member state to member
state, but is typically around 17%. If you produce in the EU you pay the VAT
and when you ship to America you pay import duty, which is usually low,
typically in the single digit as a percentage, and your European VAT is
refunded. Under this current arrangement, the American producer pays the full
American tax, plus the full European VAT, plus a very small import duty. The
European producer pays no European VAT, no American taxes, and just a small
import duty. In other words the American company is taxed twice, while the
European company is not taxed. Now look what happens when the import duties are
done away with. We know, historically, what has happened. Since the end of
World War II there have been several international trade agreements that
resulted in the EU lowering import duties. Which each lowering of the import
duties the EU states have raised the VAT so that the actual cost of getting
American goods into the European market has stayed constant. There is no reason
to think that the result of a US-EU FTA will be any different. European
companies will have better access to the US market because they wont have to
pay taxes which American companies will still pay full US and EU taxes.
FTAs can favor foreign producers over Americans in another
way. In the US,
through our democratic process, we enact laws and regulations that distort
trade by forcing employers to abide by certain standards regarding labor
conditions, environmental protection, and consumer safety. These are
constraints that a profit-maximizing firm, absent government interference,
might not enact. Whatever one thinks of any particular regulation -- too lax or
too rigid -- collectively they express what Americans believe is the minimum
acceptable level of conduct and forbid trade in domestic goods or services
violating those standards. However, under international conventions, the US is
severely circumscribed as to imposing any limitations on imports from other
countries that have lower standards. It is true that some of our FTAs contain
labor, environmental, and sanitary provisions, but even they are slight in many
cases compared to US rules. And such international standards as there are are
denounced by "free traders" as trade distorting policies, rather than
being recognized for what they are, attempts to create at least somewhat similar
rules for the different players, again, a basic assumption of, not a derogation
from, "comparative advantage" theory. In theory one could calculate
the advantage lax rules confer on a trader and impose a countervailing
"social" tariff. To the extent that we believe that our laws
implement minimum humane standards, a good case could be made that we should so
do.
Finally, I must address Mr.
Obama's misleading statement that "95 percent of the world’s
customers live outside our borders." It is misleading because it
implies a vast -- 95% -- market outside of the US. The fact is that most of
those 95% don't have any money to buy US goods. Yes, there are foreign markets
that are attractive to American manufacturers (and would be more attractive
with a FTA that truly levels the playing field). But that potential market is
nowhere near the 95% that the President implied. According to Dave Tilford of
the Sierra Club, "With less than 5 percent of
world population, the U.S. uses one-third of the world's paper, a quarter of
the world's oil, 23 percent of the coal, 27 percent of the aluminum, and 19
percent of the copper." (Scientific
American, September
14, 2012.)
America
is the largest consumer market in the world. If our companies cannot thrive by
selling here, there is no way we can export our way to prosperity.
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